If you read the print edition of a newspaper, still make calls over a
landline or plan to rent a tuxedo for an upcoming wedding, you are doing what
many of your friends and neighbors gave up long ago.
Analysts at IBISWorld, a market research firm, recently compiled a list
of 10 industries that may be on the "verge of extinction in the United States."
Within its database of close to 700 industries, about 200 are in decline, with
the ones selected having seen large and steady drops in revenue and number of
establishments. From the beginning of 2011 to the end of 2016, these industries
are likely to deteriorate further.
"People might think that we are coming out of recession and these industries
have hit bottom, so therefore everyone should be going up," IBISWorld Senior
Analyst Toon van Beeck says. "But that is definitely not the case. A lot of
these revenues peaked in about 2000 and since then they have declined year over
year."
He explains that while economic cycles, the ups and downs of bull and bear
markets, often swing every eight to 10 years, "industry life cycles can be three
to 50 years where they go from maturity into decline." The industries singled
out by the firm "are really at the end of their decline phase or they are in
rapid decline."
Most of the industries share common reasons for their bleak prospects,
including damage from advances in technology, industry stagnation and external
competition, he says.
Because labor costs and regulations are high domestically, many manufacturers
send their production to foreign countries. Downward price pressure from
domestic wholesalers, retailers and consumers forces U.S. producers to cut costs
to offer a competitive price. Many firms that cannot outsource have a difficult
time competing.
Advances in technology are another drag on companies whose failures drag down
their industry. The rapid pace of technological developments may create
industries and business opportunities. But traditional companies not
forward-thinking or nimble enough to adapt will court failure.
Adding to the vicious circle, struggling companies are often forced to cut
prices and reduce production costs. Doing so hammers away at budgets for R&D, as
well as capital and technology investments. The resulting stagnation drags down
these businesses, and their overall industry, even more.
Pontiac is officially closed after
84 years in business
Wired Telecommunication Carriers
In singling out wired telecommunication carriers as among the 10 barely
breathing industries, IBISWorld points that revenues have dropped nearly 55%
since $341.8 billion in the year 2000. An additional decline of 37.1% is
projected over the next six years.
Big players such as AT&T (NYSE:
T -
News) and Verizon
(NYSE:
VZ -
News) still dominate
the industry despite losing a steady stream of customers, he says, because of
their prominence in the wireless space for which many former customers are
jumping ship.
Record Stores
Record stores, van Beeck says, are a "sad story" hard hit by changes in how
their customers now find, buy and listen to music. There may still be a strong,
core following for traditional vinyl, but many shops haven't found a way to
expand beyond that niche.
The industry saw revenue plummet 76.3% since 2000, to about $2 billion.
IBISWorld expects the bad news to get worse as they lose nearly another 40% by
2016.
Van Beeck says record stores are a case study in not adapting nimbly enough
to changing times.
Bookstores, which bear conceptual similarities to record stores, are
themselves in rough shape these days -- with the once giant Borders (NYSE:
BGP -
News) now in
bankruptcy. Their declines weren't substantial enough to make the cut of his
ranking, van Beeck says. In fact, they may offer some hindsight into what record
stores could have done -- creating a more customer-friendly environment with
cafes and a more diverse inventory.
Photofinishing
The photofinishing industry has also lost its focus and vibrancy.
"While Eastman Kodak (NYSE:
EK-
News), Fuji Film and
Ritz Camera were once major and prominent companies, they are just a splash of
what they were in their heyday," van Beeck says.
Picture this: Kodak -- the
company that invented the first
digital camera in 1975, and
developed the photo technology
inside most cell phones and digital
devices -- is in the midst of the
worst crisis in its 131-year
history.
With about $1.6 billion in revenue last year, they have faced a decline of
nearly 70% during the past decade. Revenue could drop another 40% by 2016,
IBISWorld estimates.
Once again, technology is the issue. Digital cameras continue to offer
improving quality and falling prices. Color printing can be done at home and
cheap digital storage, on hard drives and flash sticks and through online
services, has reduced the need to produce a hard copy of every shot as a
keepsake. Overall, the total number of prints in the United States has fallen at
an annualized rate of 3.5% over the past five years, he says.
Video Postproduction
Video postproduction is another industry done in by the do-it-yourself
opportunities presented by new technology. Once requiring specialized expertise,
many of these tasks can be done on even an average home computer.
Companies such as Technicolor have suffered as a result. Industry wide,
revenues have fallen 25% in the past decade to just north of $4 billion, with
another 11% decrease predicted by 2016.
Newspapers
The Internet's role as a creator/destroyer is also behind the constant talk
of the demise of newspapers. Newspaper publishing, a $41 billion industry last
year, fell 36% since 2000, with a 20% decline likely by 2016.
Failing to see the writing on the wall, and how the online world would snare
eyeballs and advertisers, is once again a major part of the problem these
companies face. It's been years and years since the "information superhighway"
was a hot concept, and yet such companies as The New York Times {NYSE:
NYT -
News) are just now
getting serious (though not yet successful) about such concepts as "paywalls"
for their content.
DVD, game and video
rentals
Blockbuster(BBI,
its woes reflected in the state of the DVD, game and video rental marketplace,
could be a poster child for dying industries.
"In 2000, Blockbuster was a thriving business and the most
dominant player in the $12.2 billion industry. Today, Blockbuster is bankrupt,
and the industry is 35.7% smaller than it was a decade ago," van Beeck wrote in
his analysis.
Demand for the sort of media Blockbuster built its one-time
empire on is as strong as ever, he says. What changed is that the company, and
many like it, weren't prepared for how the Internet, digital cable, satellite
TV, big box stores and mail-delivery services such as Netflix(NFLX_)
would change consumer habits. What was once a weekend night at home can now be
an everyday occurrence without the need to drive to a specialized,
bricks-and-mortar location. The industry's revenue of roughly $7.8 billion last
year is down nearly 36% since 2000, with a 20% drop-off projected over the next
six years.
Formalwear and
costume rental
Proms and weddings may be joyous occasions, but there isn't much smiling these
days for those in the business of formalwear and costume rentals.
The old-school
business model was fairly simple. Important events demanded expensive attire
few would wear often enough to afford and, therefore, rented the outfit instead.
There are new ways these days to go black tie, however.
"China and other low-cost apparel manufacturing countries
have been able to produce lower-cost suits and costumes for the U.S.," van Beeck
says.
As the cost is driven down, consumers are increasingly
weighing the value of renting an outfit or, for slightly more, buying one to
keep and reuse.
Not everyone is suffering equally. Men's
Wearhouse(MW_),
with about 50% of the market, is the largest in the marketplace, and that scale
gives it a leg up on the competition, according to van Beeck.
"But the industry as a whole, when you include all of the
smaller players, is getting hit pretty hard," he says.
IBISWorld says the industry pulled in roughly $736 million in
revenue last year, a decline of 35% from 2000. It forecasts a further revenue
drop of 14.6% through 2016.
Mills
Textile mills, and companies that create socks, carpeting and knitted apparel,
have faced a difficult time due to overseas competition. Because facilities
outside the U.S. can make these products more cheaply, domestic demand has
plummeted.
The industry, with nearly $55 billion in revenue last year,
has lost 50% of that income stream since 2000, with another 10% reduction
unraveling by 2016, according to IBISWorld.
There is one bright spot. U.S. companies producing nonwoven
fabrics still have a global upside because other countries have not yet
perfected the technology to produce flame-resistant or moisture-absorbing
fabrics.
This niche area is good news for such companies as
Hanesbrands(HBI_)
and Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A_),
a major player in the mill space.
Apparel manufacturing
Sounding a similar story, apparel makers have been squeezed out of their profits
by the cheap labor and materials offered offshore.
The $13 billion industry saw revenue falling 77% over the past decade,
bottoming out so badly IBISWorld foresees an additional 8.5% drop by 2016.
Like mills, the news isn't all bad. In addition to the prominence U.S.
manufacturers have in making certain specialty fabrics, there are competitive
strengths in apparel design and brand development, the IBISWorld report says.
U.S.-based operators possess advanced advertising and promotional skills and
have access to a large consumer market.